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ID8018
Title Ibn Khaldoun Journal For Studies And Researches
E ISSN 2789-3359
P ISSN 2789-7834
Country palestine
Impact Factor Awaiting
Publication year 2021
Publisher NameIbn AlArabi center for culture and publishing
FrequencyBimonthly
Indexed Yes
Website https://www.benkjournal.com


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Dwarf reed snakes are secretive, often nocturnal species that live across Southeast Asia, where they are prey for birds and other snakes. Although the snakes are extremely cryptic and usually hidden beneath leaves or other natural objects, people occasionally observe the serpents' dazzling rolls.

In a 2023 study, researchers formally documented the rolling behavior for the first time in one dwarf reed snake species (P. longiceps), which researchers observed in northwestern Malaysia in 2019. Kojima's team started independently observing the behavior around the same time in the Malaysian state of Sarawak, on Borneo.

"I had never seen anything like it before, and I immediately wanted to learn more about it," Kojima said.

For the new study, researchers filmed the rolling behavior multiple times in three dwarf reed species ‪—‬ P. saravacense, P. collaris and P. longiceps — between 2019 and 2022. The team also studied three reed snakes from another genus (Calamaria), which didn't perform the behavior.

Kojima said their study builds on the 2023 research by quantifying the rolling movements, confirming the overall movement pattern that research described, and revealing further details, including how the snakes stabilize their heads.

Snakes aren't the only tumblers in nature. For example, some desert spiders can roll away from danger, as can mother-of-pearl moth caterpillars (Pleurotya ruralis or Patania ruralis). However, the snakes are unique in that they seem to have good control over their rolls.

Rolling movements typically destabilize the head and disrupt sensory-guided adjustment, especially at high speeds, according to the authors of the new study. In other words, it's hard for animals to control their bodies when they're rolling around. The snakes' technique of keeping their heads relatively fixed and often elevated off the ground likely counters what would otherwise be destabilizing effects.

A photo of a dwarf reed snake (Pseudorabdion saravacense).

Pseudorabdion saravacense is one of three dwarf reed snake species now known to perform the rolling behavior. (Image credit: Yosuke Kojima)

In addition to studying speed and form, the researchers found that the snakes could move in a relatively straight line, readily moving along a "racetrack" that was only 8 inches (20 centimeters) wide. The researchers noted that the snakes often ended their tumbling routine by diving underneath nearby objects, so they seem to remain aware of their surroundings.

The rolling is a behavioral innovation that allows the snakes to overcome their physical constraints and pull off an otherwise impossible movement, according to the researchers.

"Behavioral innovation can give rise to surprising new abilities that we would not expect from an animal's appearance alone," Kojima said.

Researchers have speculated that the bizarre behavior could surprise and confuse predators, in addition to being a rapid means of escape. The authors of the 2023 study also hypothesized that rolling would result in a patchy scent trail, and because king cobras (Ophiophagus) use scent cues to locate their prey, this could make it harder for the predators to hunt dwarf reed snakes.

How much do you know about snakes? Test your knowledge with our snake quiz!

'> Watch bizarre snake 'cartwheel' away from danger at more than 12 feet per second Mars. The historic endeavor marks another major step toward humanity's shared goal of understanding — and perhaps eventually colonizing — one of our closest planetary neighbors, experts say.

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's (JAXA) Martian Moons Exploration (MMX) probe is an international effort, constructed with help from NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA) and others. Over the next few years, it will closely study the Red Planet's twin moons, Phobos and Deimos. The spacecraft will snap close-up photos of the pair before attempting to land on the larger satellite, Phobos, to scoop up rocky material that will hopefully be carried back to Earth in around five years.

If the mission is successful, the returned samples will finally settle a decades-old mystery about the origins of both moons. The findings could also help paint a picture of Mars' ancient history and provide clues about what the early solar system was like.

A composite image showing Phobos and Deimos next to Mars

The MMX probe will study Phobos (bottom center) and Deimos (upper right) up close. [This is a composite image made by stitching together individual photos of Mars (left) and its moons.] (Image credit: NASA/JPL/University of Arizona)

"This mission marks a transformative leap in our capacity to investigate the Martian system," Sonia Fornasier, an astronomer at the Paris Observatory who has studied Phobos and Deimos extensively and is a project scientist for MMX's infrared spectrometer instrument (MIRS), told Live Science. It "ranks very high" among the missions we have sent to the Red Planet so far, she added.

What will MMX do?

JAXA launched the MMX probe on board an H3 rocket, which lifted off from Tanegashima Space Center in Kagoshima prefecture at 3:41 p.m. EDT Monday (4:41 a.m. Tuesday local time), Live Science's sister site Space.com reported. (The mission was initially scheduled to launch in 2024, but it was delayed due to initial concerns about the H3 rocket.)

The camper-van-sized spacecraft successfully separated from the rocket's fairing just over an hour later, and on Wednesday (Oct. 21), JAXA announced that the mission had passed the "initial critical operations phase," meaning the probe is now locked into its roughly 140 million-mile-long (225 million kilometers) journey to Mars, which will take around 10 months.

"MMX took its first step today," Naoki Murakami, general manager of Mitsubishi Electric’s space division, which led the design of the MMX probe, said in a postlaunch news conference early Tuesday morning (Oct. 20), according to The Japan Times. "This marks the beginning of a long, five-year journey."

A photo of a crowd watching a rocket launch at night

Large crowds gathered at the Tanegashima Space Center to watch the launch of the H3 rocket carrying MMX in the early hours of Monday (Oct. 19). (Image credit: JIJI Press / AFP via Getty Images)

Once the probe arrives at the Red Planet in August 2027, it will insert itself into a "quasi-satellite orbit" around Phobos. In other words, MMX will circle Mars alongside the moon but will not be gravitationally bound to it, similar to around half a dozen "quasi-moons" that currently accompany Earth around the sun.

This mission marks a transformative leap in our capacity to investigate the Martian system

Sonia Fornasier, Paris Observatory

After collecting data from a distance for a few months, MMX will swoop down and attempt to land on the surface of Phobos ‪—‬ not once, but twice.

During the first landing, MMX will hover just above the moon and deploy a mini rover, dubbed Idefix, onto the moon's surface. The wandering robot, built by the French and German space agencies, will have to contend with extremely weak gravity as it trundles across the surface of Phobos: The rover weighs around 55 pounds (25 kilograms) on Earth but will weigh only around half an ounce (15 grams) on Phobos, according to ESA.

An artist's illustration of the MMX probe flying past Mars

The MMX probe will arrive at Mars in August 2027, following a 10-month journey from Earth. (Image credit: JAXA/MMX)

Once Idefix has completed its initial assessment of the moon's surface, the entire MMX probe will set down on Phobos, on top of the spacecraft's four-legged lander module. Mission scientists hope this goes a lot more smoothly than the attempted landings of Japan's "Moon Sniper" and Resilience lunar landers, which crash-landed on Earth's moon in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Two of the MMX lander's legs contain built-in sampling devices ‪—‬ one that will drill into Phobos and another that will hoover up surface material. The second device, dubbed the Pneumatic Sampler (or P-Sampler), was built by the Blue Origin-owned private company Honeybee Robotics on behalf of NASA and will collect its material in a "matter of seconds," Kris Zacny, vice president of the Exploration Technology Group at Honeybee Robotics, said at an Oct. 15 NASA news conference. "You blink, and it's all done."

In total, JAXA aims to collect around a third of an ounce (10 grams) of material from Phobos. That would be around twice as much material as the space agency managed to snag on its most recent sample-return mission, Hayabusa2, which collected samples from the "spinning-top" asteroid Ryugu in 2019, finding materials rich in surprising organic compounds.

A photo of a replica of the IDEFIX rover being tested in a lab

The probe will deploy the IDEFIX rover on Phobos before it lands to collect its samples. The wandering robot will provide initial data that will help select a suitable landing site for MMX. (Image credit: DLR)

Once the samples have been acquired, at some point between late 2028 and early 2029, the probe will conduct a series of close flybys of Mars' smaller moon, Deimos, before beginning the long trip back to Earth in late 2030 — the first return flight ever attempted by a spacecraft sent to Mars.

When the probe returns to Earth in 2031, it will release its samples in a 20-inch-wide (60 centimeters) container that will fall back to our planet's surface, most likely somewhere in Australia, according to ESA.

What could we learn about Phobos and Deimos?

Mars' twin satellites, which were first spotted by American astronomer Asaph Hall in 1877, are nothing like Earth's constant companion. For starters, they are much smaller; Phobos is around 14 miles (22 km) across, while Deimos is just 7.5 miles (12 km) wide. The duo also have lopsided shapes and are between 12 and 64 times closer to Mars than the moon is to Earth. (Phobos, meaning "fear," and Deimos, meaning "terror," are named after the sons of the Greek war god Ares, the counterpart to the Roman war god Mars.)

Phobos is dominated by the 6-mile-wide (10 km) Stickney crater, which was left by an ancient asteroid impact. The larger moon is also slowly falling toward Mars and may eventually be ripped apart before it reaches the Red Planet's surface.

A photo of Stickney crater on Phobos

The most notable feature on Phobos is Stickney crater, which is more than 5 miles wide. This photo of the crater was snapped by the HiRISE camera on board NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, and was released earlier this month. (Image credit: HiRISE, MRO, LPL (U. Arizona), NASA)

Other Martian spacecraft, such as the Emirates Mars Mission orbiter, have flown close to the moons, and NASA's Mars rovers have frequently looked up to see the satellites eclipsing the sun in Mars' sky (sometimes both at the same time). Yet many mysteries remain about the pair.

"Mars is right in our cosmic backyard, and yet we haven't explored the planet's moons," Nancy Chabot, a space exploration expert at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland and the deputy principal investigator of NASA's MEGANE instrument on board MMX, told Live Science in an email. "MMX will do this!"

An artist's impression of the MMX probe analyzing Phobos during a flyby

MMX will closely analyze Mars' moons using nearly a dozen different sensors and instruments to help pin down the mysterious origin of the twin satellites. (Image credit: JAXA/MMX)

The biggest mystery surrounding Phobos and Deimos is their origin. Some researchers suspect the satellites are asteroids, or maybe even comets, that have been captured by Mars' gravity, while others think the moons emerged from the debris of an ancient impact on the planet's surface, similar to how Earth's moon formed.

Neither theory is conclusive, meaning the moons' origins "remain enigmatic," Christopher Edwards, a planetary scientist at Northern Arizona University and one of NASA's participating scientists for MMX, told Live Science.

For example, explaining how Mars captured the moons is "quite hard from an orbital mechanics perspective," but if they did form from a debris disk from an ancient impact, they should have coalesced into better-defined spheres, Edwards said.

"MMX will solve this debate thanks to the spacecraft observations and the detailed analysis of the samples of Phobos on Earth," Fornasier said. The data the probe collects from its flybys of Deimos will also allow researchers to generate a "full characterization of this body," she added.

A close-up photo of Deimos in front of Mars

This photo of Deimos was snapped by the Emirates Moon Mission in 2023 and is one of the best images of either of Mars' moons to date. (Image credit: Emirates Mars Mission)

Fornasier is "particularly excited" by the possibility that the moons are captured asteroids because that would mean they would likely contain "organic and hydrated materials," which would have a big "astrobiological implication" and would shed light on what the early solar system was like.

What could we learn about Mars itself?

Regardless of how the twin moons formed, researchers also stand to learn a lot about Mars and how planets form and evolve.

"Phobos and Deimos are interesting, but not just in their own right," Tom Statler, an MMX program executive and scientist in NASA's Planetary Science Division, said at the Oct. 15 news conference. "Their presence is a key piece of the larger story of the Mars system. By uncovering the moons' origin, we'll gain new insights into the history of both Mars and Earth."

A photo of a man in white coveralls and a face mask stood in front two parts of the MMX probe in a clean room

MMX has been more than a decade in the making and involved input from agencies and companies around the globe. This photo shows the project's manager, Yasuhiro Kawakatsu, standing in front of two parts of the probe inside a clean room at the Tanegashima Space Center in August. (Image credit: Yuichi YAMAZAKI / AFP via Getty Images)

If the moons did form via an impact scenario, the samples MMX collects may also contain actual pieces of Mars for researchers to study.

"If these objects are in fact pieces from the Martian surface that have coalesced moons, we'll collect the best-preserved samples of the Martian surface," Edwards said. Other fragments of Mars have already reached Earth as meteorites. However, entry into Earth's atmosphere can transform them.

If Phobos is a chunk of Mars, that would be a real boon to NASA, which canceled its Mars Sample Return program — a mission that would have retrieved samples collected by the Perseverance rover — earlier this year. The agency's researchers will receive up to 15% of the MMX samples to analyze.

An artist's impression of the MMX probe flying toward Phobos with Mars in the background

MMX will also shed light on Mars' ancient history and evolution, as well as analyzing the planet's moons. It will depart the Red Planet at some point in late 2030. (Image credit: JAXA/MMX)

During its three-year stay in the Red Planet's system, the Japanese probe will also collect lots of data on Mars that could contribute to a wide range of future findings. "MMX will conduct in-depth studies of the Martian atmosphere, with a particular emphasis on dust and water transport mechanisms and the escape processes shaping Mars' atmospheric dynamics," Fornasier said.

This atmospheric data could temporarily fill a gap left by the recent death of NASA's iconic MAVEN spacecraft, which stopped sending data back to Earth late last year.

Analysis of craters on the Martian moons could also provide clues about other events in Mars' history. For example, some researchers think the Red Planet may have once had rings like Saturn or a larger moon.

A photo of the H3 rocket launching into space at night on Oct. 19

Experts have described MMX as a "transformative leap" and "paradigm-shifting" for Martian science. (Image credit: DLR )

Other experts are hopeful that the MMX findings could help lay the groundwork for future missions to explore ‪—‬ and perhaps colonize ‪—‬ Mars. "The samples from MMX will bring forth paradigm-shifting science on the Mars system for generations to come, especially as NASA prepares to send the first humans to Mars," Nicky Fox, associate administrator for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, said in a recent statement.

The next sample-return trip to Mars will be China's Tianwen-3 mission, which is scheduled to launch in 2028 and will aim to land on and retrieve samples directly from the Red Planet's surface, according to Space.com.

'> Japan launches world's first round-trip mission to Mars.

Equatorial temperatures spiked, making much of the land too hot for life. Meanwhile, the oceans became acidic and most of the creatures in them suffocated from lack of oxygen. Known as the Permian-Triassic mass extinction or the "Great Dying," it ultimately destroyed more than 90% of ocean life and 70% of terrestrial species.

However, in a corner of what is now China, a refuge of pollen-producing plants avoided that fate and created an oasis for surviving animals. Research suggests that this was not the only place where plants were able to weather catastrophic climate change during the Great Dying, and that plants may have been better able to withstand the extinction event than other organisms.

"Plants do indeed sometimes have a lot of resilience because they can't move individually, and even as a population, they're not very good at moving," Chris Thomas, an ecologist and evolutionary biologist at the University of York in the U.K., told Live Science. As a result, many plants have evolved mechanisms to survive in place despite difficult conditions, he said.

As climate change raises global temperatures and throws ecosystems into upheaval, plants will need to draw once more upon this resilience. Many plant species have evolved unique adaptations that help them weather harsh conditions. Experts told Live Science that these adaptations — along with a hefty dose of luck — will now decide the difference between survival and extinction.

Growing with the flow

Unlike most animals, many plants have the ability to regenerate limbs — and those limbs can make them better able to adapt to new environment conditions. Plants in general have higher developmental plasticity than animals, which means that they have greater flexibility to change how their cells and tissues grow and develop.

"Many plants have what we call indeterminate growth and modular body plans," Amy Angert, a botanist at the University of British Columbia in Canada, told Live Science. Indeterminate growth means that an organism continues to grow and develop indefinitely throughout its lifespan.

"If we lost an arm, it would be gone forever. But on plants, if you cut off a branch, they can sprout new ones and those new ones can then receive signals from the current environment instead of being stuck with sort of developmental programs from the past environment."

For example, researchers found that resprouts on holm oak trees (Quercus ilex) are better able to cope with drought than those that had not resprouted.

And because buds can go dormant, many plant species can resprout after catastrophic events, such as fire. Cape Floristic Region in South Africa, for example, is the smallest of the world's six recognized floral kingdoms, and most of its plant species depend on fire — its plants resprout after fire and many of their seeds require fire to germinate.

Some plants, such as the Snow Gum (​​Eucalyptus pauciflora), have a thick layer of insulating bark to protect their buds, while others like stinging nettles (Urtica dioica) bury them underground in a "bud bank". The soil insulates the seed's buds from extreme heat and cold and protects most of the plant from life-threatening conditions. This widespread adaptation allows herbaceous plants to endure through the winter and plants with bulbs to hide their tissues from the ravages of fire.

Snow gums (Eucalyptus pauciflora) under snow at Mount Franklin, Namadgi National Park, Australia. (Image credit: Auscape via Getty Images)

Storing seeds for better times

Plants can also store seeds underground when times are difficult. Almost 350,000 plant species produce seeds. For most of these species, the seeds contain dormant tiny versions of the young plant, with all the structures that will turn into leaves and roots.

"Seeds can live essentially in stasis in the soil," Daniel Anstett, an evolutionary ecologist at Cornell University, told Live Science. "You can have the seed bank where certain seeds might come back, and there's access to the backward library of genetic information that many plants can ultimately draw upon."

Seed banks are a vital tool for resilience in many plant species. They create the opportunity for metabolically inactive individuals to reanimate when environmental conditions improve, according to a 2021 paper published in the journal Nature Communications. "When lucky, at least some of these individuals will awaken in the future when the environment is more conducive for growth and reproduction," the authors wrote.

Rapid evolution

Seedbanks can also be reservoirs of genetic diversity, which is integral to being able to adapt to new environments.

"The raw material for adaptation comes from genetic variation," said Angert. "Genetic variation is larger in large populations, and genetic variation can be shared between populations as the environment changes — if individuals can disperse successfully between them."

In a paper published in journal Science earlier this year, researchers, including Angert and Anstett, showed rapid evolution saved scarlet monkey flower (Erythranthe cardinalis) populations from prolonged drought in the U.S. and Mexico between 2010 and 2018.

"They can either grow really fast, flower and put out seeds before the fall drought takes effect, or they can grow much more slowly and bunker down,” Anstett explained.

Scarlet Monkeyflower (Erythranthe Cardinalis) in a greenhouse drought experiment. (Image credit: Daniel Anstett)

The researchers sequenced the genomes of 55 scarlet monkeyflower populations to find areas within their genomes linked to coping with stress and drought. They tracked the populations and how they changed over the period. Some populations experienced rapid evolution to cope with the changing environment.

They found that, based on populations’ genetic diversity, they could predict whether a population would be able to survive the drought — even before it started.

While this is only one plant species, Anstett believes it could be true of other organisms too.

Flexible photosynthesis

Some plants are able to transform how they produce energy to endure a changing environment. This is what Zhen Xu, a paleobotanist at the University of Leeds in the U.K, thinks allowed some plant species to survive the Permian-Triassic mass extinction and might become increasingly important for plants in today's changing climate.

Plants use photosynthesis to convert carbon dioxide and water into sugars and oxygen, and use stomata, or small pores on their leaf surface, to regulate the amount of carbon dioxide entering the plant.

Reproductive cone (strobilus) of a Triassic lycophyte from South China. It is approximately 2.4 inches (6 centimeters long). (Image credit: Zhen Xu)

Many plants open their stomata during the day to let in CO2 and release oxygen. Others use CAM photosynthesis, which stands for "Crassulacean acid metabolism," to close their stomata during the day and protect themselves from the heat. At night, they absorb CO2 and transform it into an acid, which they store in their tissues to be used to make sugars during the day.

"CAM photosynthesis is very common in present day desert plants, like the cactus and succulents," Xu told Live Science. "It's a very smart way to escape from the high temperature or aridity during the daytime."

In a study published in journal Nature Ecology & Evolution earlier this year, Xu and colleagues showed that plants that used CAM photosynthesis had an advantage during the Permian-Triassic mass extinction.

They found that Lycophytes, or are ancient vascular plants, switched to CAM photosynthesis around the time of the mass extinction. "We think CAM photosynthesis may be the special strategy to survive" and allowed these plants to dominate after the mass extinction, Xu said.

Hopeful monsters

Some plants go to even more extreme lengths. During cataclysmic events, plants have turned into "hopeful monsters" to survive environmental upheaval, past research shows.

In nine separate events over the past 150 million years, many flowering plants duplicated their whole genome to give themselves a better chance of survival, according to research published in journal Cell earlier this year. The duplicate genome gives them more opportunities to evolve and adapt to challenging environmental conditions.

"We see clusterings of whole genome duplications in time, and every time it corresponds with a described, important geological event, whether it's a global cooling period, whether it's a global warming period, or whether there's an extinction event," study co-author Yves Van de Peer, a genome biologist at Ghent University in Belgium, told Live Science at the time.

Boils down to luck

Still, the survival of specific plant populations or species often boils down to luck, experts told Live Science.

Plants "essentially have this broad toolkit" but "some of the plants have some pathways, and other plants have others, and some have some traits, and some have others", Anstett said. Whether the particular tools they have will help depends on the conditions they face.

During the Triassic-Permian mass extinction, the plants in refugia in China (and elsewhere) were in the right place at the right time, with the right suite of potential adaptations at their disposal and enough genetic variety to tap into them.

The same holds true for modern-day species facing a changing climate and potential extinction. Angert said there are ways to make plant species "luckier" in the years ahead, such as connecting fragmented populations to increase genetic diversity, which increases the suite of potential tools at a plant species' disposal.

"The best thing we could do is to leave larger and better connected populations on the landscape," she said.

Anstett agreed. "If populations become really disconnected, then potentially we're eroding away whatever toolkit that these plants have to be able to adapt."

Help us improve Live Science Pro: We're always trying to make our content better. Leave us feedback about Pro here.

'> Will plants survive climate change? The 'Great Dying' reveals clues about their resilience.

Christoforos Kotsakis, a professor of geodesy at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki in Greece, developed a new method for analyzing GNSS data to better capture the changes in the planet's surface. He found that the poles are rising and the equator's bulge has been shrinking, each by about 0.04 inch (1 millimeter) per year between 2011 to 2015. That's a small number, considering Earth's diameter at the equator is about 7,926 miles (12,756 kilometers). But that change is bigger than between 1997-2000, when Earth was becoming about 0.02 inch (0.5 mm) rounder per year. This means Earth's shape is rounding at 0.016 inch (0.4 mm) more per year with each decade that passes.

The shift is being driven by polar ice melt, which takes pressure off the Earth's crust and allows it to rise slowly, similar to how rising bread dough springs back after you press a finger into it, Kotsakis reported. Meanwhile, increased mass toward the equator puts pressure on the crust there, reducing its bulge. However, there's a catch: When considering the solid Earth and the ocean together, the planet is getting flatter by about 0.03 inches (0.8 mm) a year because the ocean is getting bulgier at the equator as water shifts away from the poles. This 'water weight' overwhelms the rounding happening in the rock below.

These shifts are also slowing Earth's rotation, other research has shown.

Researchers also track Earth's changing shape using measurements of its gravity field, which varies depending on the mass of particular regions. GNSS changes and gravity field measurements don't match up perfectly, Kotsakis found, which indicates that the planet's shape and gravity field aren't in perfect lockstep. However, the two methods can be used together to track the major effects of climate change, especially the melting of Greenland and Antarctica and the varying movements of ocean water.

'> Climate change is literally altering the shape of our planet

"The Upper Colorado River Basin has historically been considered more resilient because it receives more precipitation, particularly snowfall in the Rocky Mountains," Oyedele told Live Science in an email. "I think the important takeaway is that we should not assume that the Upper Basin will remain relatively resilient simply because it has historically received more precipitation and snowmelt."

The Lower Basin comprises parts of Nevada, California and Arizona. Less rain and snowfall means the Lower Basin naturally has less groundwater recharge, or less replenishment from other water sources, than the Upper Basin. On top of that, the Lower Basin generally has higher evaporation rates and substantial water demands, given that roughly 30 million of the 40 million people that depend on the Colorado River for water live in the Lower Basin, Oyedele said.

In the new study, published Oct. 13 in the journal Water Resources Research, researchers used satellite and hydrological data to estimate groundwater depletion across the Colorado River Basin between 2004 and 2023. The data included measurements of surface water, soil moisture and snow-water storage, as well as observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission and its successor, called the Follow-On.

The results showed that groundwater depletion has been a persistent problem in the Colorado River Basin over the past two decades, but losses accelerated in 2019. The three-year drought that began in 2020 is the principal cause of this, because it shrank the snowpack in the Rocky Mountains, increased evaporation and boosted water demand across the basin, Oyedele said.

During the drought between 2020 and 2022, the Upper Basin lost around 4.2 cubic miles (17.5 cubic kilometers) of groundwater, while the Lower Basin lost about 2.3 cubic miles (9.4 cubic km). In total, the Colorado River Basin lost 14 cubic miles (58.3 cubic km) of groundwater ‪—‬ equivalent to 25 million Olympic-size swimming pools' worth of water ‪—‬ during the study period, between 2004 and 2023.

It's unclear why the deficit is so much higher in the Upper Basin than in the Lower Basin, but the Upper Basin's proximity to and dependence on the mountains for aquifer recharge probably didn't help, Oyedele said. As snow melts, some of it replenishes groundwater, so a reduction in snowfall between 2020 and 2022 would have affected the Upper Basin particularly badly, she noted.

The Upper Basin also recorded more aquifer recharge during wet periods before the drought than the Lower Basin did, so it's possible that the pronounced decline during the drought was linked to a higher initial amount of groundwater in the Upper Basin, Oyedele said.

Map showing the Upper and Lower basin regions of the Colorado River Basin.

The Upper Basin includes parts of Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico, while the Lower Basin comprises parts of Nevada, California and Arizona. (Image credit: U.S. Geological Survey)

Next, the researchers used advanced statistical methods to explore the relationship between groundwater and surface water in the Colorado River Basin. Due to global warming and the overallocation of the Colorado River's water in a 1922 document, the river's flow is now 35% less than it was on average in the 20th century. Water scarcity in the basin has reached alarming levels, according to the study, and Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the two largest reservoirs in the U.S., dropped to record lows in August.

The team found that in the Upper Basin, groundwater levels evolve in the same direction as surface water, but with a slight delay. This suggests groundwater losses occur due to a lack of recharge and more aquifer pumping during periods of drought, when surface water levels drop. In the Lower Basin, however, this link is weaker and more complex. The results showed that groundwater losses sometimes preceded surface water declines during the study period, suggesting that groundwater depletion is not simply tied to less surface water trickling into the ground or to humans extracting groundwater when there's less surface water available. Instead, groundwater is consistently being overused, Oyedele said.

"This distinction is important because it suggests that groundwater depletion is not simply a direct response to surface-water shortages," she said. "Human water use, particularly sustained groundwater extraction, may also play a significant role."

Looking ahead, it's hard to tell if the Upper Basin will continue to lose more groundwater than the Lower Basin and what that would mean for the region, Oyedele said. What seems clear, however, is that the Upper Basin is more vulnerable to drought than experts had thought.

"Continued warming, changes in snowpack, prolonged drought, and increasing water demand could place additional pressure on groundwater resources across both basins," Oyedele said. However, future groundwater responses will depend on several factors, including precipitation, snowmelt, water use and management decisions, she added.

On the management side, Oyedele suggested tackling groundwater and surface water together rather than as two separate resources. Groundwater helps to sustain river flows, and rivers can recharge aquifers ‪—‬ so the two are interconnected. Groundwater often serves as a backup during drought, but it shouldn't be treated as an unlimited reserve, she said.

'> Surprising new pattern of groundwater loss may signal a turning point for the Colorado River Basin
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